Subject: MAGNITUDE/DIMENSIONS OF DROUGHT IN BALOCHISTAN

1.    BACKGROUND:

The current drought situation has picked up in the course of last three years due to climatic changes, pressure on water resources in the face of competing need of animal, human and plants including vegetation. The catchment areas have dried up as the amount of snow fall being received on the land and mountains in and around Quetta, Kan Mehtarzai, Ziarat and adjoining belts as compared to 1970s have almost turned to negligible figures. During the past three years the quantity of rain fall received in most of the province have turned out to be a fraction of those received in the past. The temperature in the region has gone up and climate has become drier than before. All these factors have been working only in one direction i.e. drying down of surface and groundwater reserves. Balochitan is a mosaic of different physiographic, morphologic, geologic, structural and techtonic features which controls the occurrence and movement of groundwater. The province is dominated by 12 major river systems of catchment areas covering 4,188-83, 500 square Kilo meters. Estimated ground water potentials were 23-150 Mms/year during 1983 and reduced to 6-116 Mm3/year during 1993. In comparatively more inhabited basins/sub-basins, a continuous decline of water table observed from 0.1-3.5 m/year.

In most basins the springs and tubewell waters are acceptable for drinking and irrigation. The average temperature and precipitation values attribute that climatically Balochistan falls in Mediterranean and monsoonal arid zone. The altitude determines the cool-temperate to tropical temperate regimes. Surface water resources are limited, the groundwater being the only dependable source. Springs, Karezes, dug and persian wells are the traditional means of groundwater utilization. The mechanized system of tubewell installation was initiated in 1960 particularly for serving cultivable and including orchards increasing demand of water. The geology of Balochistan is dominated by five depositional basis, (I) Chagai-Raskoh Volcanic Arc, (ii) Makran-Kharan Basin, (iii) Fold Belt, (iv) Pishin Sub-basin and (v) Sibi Sub-basin. The surface drainage divided these depositional basins into 12 hydrologic/river basins.

        The estimated total groundwater potential of 12 basins for future utilization as calculated by WAPDA during 1983
        was 936 Mm3 per year which decreased to 619Mm3 per year during 1993. The yearly decrease in groundwater
        potential in different river basins vary from 0.18 to 5.3 percent, being maximum in Gaj, Moola and Zhob river basins
        and very limited amount of groundwater is available for future utilization. The groundwater monitoring results of
        selected basins of Balochistan show the depletion of groundwater estimates, such that the same for Pishin river basin
        for the period 1989-96 indicates a continuous decline of water table from 0.2 to 3.5 meters per year.

        The Irrigation Department has worked out the reduction of discharge of some of the perennial irrigation schemes in
        Sibi Division which also gives a very alarming figure showing reduction of discharge from 1/3^rd to about half. In this
        connection Naari Headworks, Saazo Irrigation Schemes, Sheerani Irrigation Scheme and Qasid Viala Irrigation
        Scheme, Gurmi Harnai may be quoted. Similarly, Kawas Irrigation Scheme and Khan Irrigation Scheme may be
        quoted in Ziarat District and Chimari Irrigation Scheme and Pazza Irrigation Scheme in Dera Bugti and Kohlu
        Districts respectively where the water table has gone down substantially.

        All these figures present a very alarming situation of drying down of groundwater reserves and developed perennial
        sources of water in Sibi Division. In other parts the position is not different. Any way it can be said that even in the
        areas where perennial sources of water were developed at huge costs with reduction in discharge of half to less than
        one third, the capacity of the sources to sustain plant animal and human population has reduced proportionately.

        This situation indicates that even if there is a rain fall in June or July, 2000, the trend is hardly going to be reversed
        and the capacity of the groundwater reserves and perennial sources of supply to sustain the population will be
        alarmingly low. This sends signals to work out medium and long term plans for finding out sources of water supplies
        for the animal and plant population. The sooner a long term plan is drawn for sustenance of the population the better
        so as to a void more serious catastrophe in future. (Mm3 signifies Million cubic metres and mm, millimeters).

II     CONSEQUENCES OF DROUGHT:

• No crop could be raised on rain-fed areas measuring 95,506 hectares and wheat sown on 17200  hectares of such areas yielded no production.

About 8% of the livestock population totally starved to death as the range land spread over 21 million hectares which used to cater for 70% feeding needs for livestock population in this province dried upto the extent of 60%.

An equal number of livestock turned weak and diseased which needed medical treatment. In all about 10 million livestock population (mostly sheep and goats) forming main stay and source of income for the livestock farmers is required to be provided with concentrates and wheat straw as fodder after drying down of the ………

The livestock farmers all over the affected areas totaling to two hundred fifty thousand turned destitute as the values of their stock eroded pulling them much below the poverty line with total run down of their purchasing power and now, depend entirely upon relief assistance for their survival.

The areas severely affected due to drought conditions included the districts of Chagai, Lasbela, Kharan, Khuzdar, Kalat, Killa Saifullah, Loralai and Pishin. The other district like Zhob, Musa Khel, Kohlu and Mastung have been affected moderately while the districts of Killa Abdullah, Jhal Magsi, Bolan, Sibi, Dera Bugti, Kech, Panjgur, Barkhan, Ziarat and Awaran have been slightly less affected. In the district of Quetta, the Tehsils of Panjpai and Kuchlak only have been affected from drought spell. Thus barring the Pat Feeder Canal fed district of Nasirabad and Jaffarabad and the coastal district of Gwadar all the 23 districts of the province have been affected by drought conditions in varying degrees.

The water table has gone down and discharges from ground-water based under supply system has declined from half to less than one-third.

        Owing to variations in geographical, demographic and topographical situation coupled with groundwater resources
        and sources of water supply in different regions, the actual damages done by drought will vary from place to place in
        the vast landscape of the province. Studies are required to be conducted on regional basis for proper analyses of the
        situation. However, study conducted by United Nations Food Assessment Mission in respect of Aranji Sub-Tehsil
        focuses on the trends in this regard. This study was conducted by the Mission in the last week of March, 2000. The
        findings provide a glance in the situation which may be summarized as follows:

• The drought situation arose from the failure of rains, placing great strain on water sources and livestock health reducing prices of livestock and diminishing the purchasing power of the population.
• The situation will further aggravate in the months to come unless good rains are received.
• The situation in parts of Balochistan particularly in Lasbela, Kharan and Chagai and in districts of Loralai and Zhob is equally bad if not worse.
• As most of the health problems and human livestock casualties is said to be caused by water borne diseases, water pumps will be best source for the provision of clean water and ponds alongwith the hand pumps for drinking purposes of the animals.
• ORS sachet may be distributed to community
• Almost 100% livestock population is suffering from liver fluke and lung worms.
• Mange is main second problem noticed in sheep and goats.
• Widely scattered inaccessible small settlements, associated with want of transportation and communication networks.

•         The Federal Government provided Rs.5 million to meet the emergency needs in drought hit areas.

• The Provincial Government released two installments of Rs.5 million each, which has been so far utilized for serving animal ration to 4000 farmers covering two hundred thousand sheep and goats throughout the province for six weeks.
• Donations are also pouring in from different quarters in the province of Punjab. About 400,000 bags of atta (of 20 KG each) are being despatched by the Director Food, Punjab while the Director General Relief, Punjab is despatching 400 trucks of wheat alongwith 7 bouzers against the allocation of Rs.100 million announced by the Govt. of Punjab yesterday, i.e. 7-5-2000.
• The Livetock Department has started delivery of fodder and medicines to livestock population against Rs.120 million provided by the Finance Department, Govt. of Balochistan to cover 25000 livestock farmers in 23 drought affected districts covering livestock population of 1.25 million for a period of 10 weeks.
• Another amount of Rs.115 million is in the pipeline out of the total Rs.235 million package contributed by the Govt. of Balochistan.
• The PTV has announced support of Rs.1 million for drought affected population in Balochistan.
• UNICEF has sent 4000 packets of water purification tablets for use in drought hit areas of Aranji Sub-Tehsil under the supervision of NGO WEES (water and environment assistance) who will impart education to the affected communities for use of these tablets.
• Mr. Husain Lakhani from Karachi, has committed and is going to deliver about 2 million worth of food items for distribution to 5000 persons in the province particularly in Nushki, Dalbandin, Kharan and Sibi.
• The Army Mobile teams with Ambulance and medicines numbering 8 in all proceeded on 4-5-2000 to support civilian medical teams in some of the hardest-hit drought affected areas.
• The Governor’s Relief Fund has been established in National Bank and Askari Commercial Bank with appeal to the nationals in Pakistan and abroad as well as to International Communities/agencies to donate liberally for supporting relief operations and donations are forthcoming in cash and kind.
• Japanese Consulate General in Karachi has been in constant touch and are likely to support our relief programme.
• NGOs are also coming forth to lend support. Social Welfare bodies in Quetta Cantonment supplied 88 bags atta of 20 kgs each. The people of Besima delivered 1000 bags of 20 kg each atta to the drought affected locals of Besima.
• 250 bags of 20 kg each have also been supplied to the Nushki camp by the volunteers of Aurat Foundation.
• The Provincial Govt. with the support of Pakistan Army despatched/delivered four truck load of atta to the camps at Nushki, Dalbandin and Aranji areas. Deliveries are in pipeline for other areas.
• The UNDP and I.I.R.O. (Muslim World League) Islamabad have also been approached for assistance.
• The Federal Government has announced a Relief Package of one billion.
• Around 500,000 kg of relief goods including sugar, ghee, rice, tea, pulses, dry milk and animal feed have been delivered to drought hit population in the province under the arrangements of NGOs/individuals.

        Due to extended drought conditions for a continuous period of three years, the drought situation in Balochistan has
        aggravated affecting approximately a population of 1.5 million spread all over Balochistan who are in need of relief
        assistance on emergent basis.

        Livestock being the main stay of such population, the drying down of grazing land has multiplied the problems of
        feeding the animal population owned by the affected population. The affected livestock population will be around 10
        million which has been directly hit by the drought.

        The relief assistance will thus be required for the following purposes:-

• Food supplies to the affected families
• Medicines and medical facilities
• Shelters and transport facilities
• Drinking water supplies
• Fodder for the drought hit animal population
• Vaccination and medicines for livestock population
• Shelter/shade for the animal population
• Items of daily use for the affected human population
• Water pumps/water tanks


        The estimates worked out for different items for delivery of goods:

• Food:- Approximately 60,000 Metric tonnes of wheat will be required for the initial phase of 10 weeks and in case of persistence of drought conditions, the period is to be extended accordingly. Food for human consumption is required to be provided at rate 400 grams per day per person and the above estimate has been worked out accordingly. It is estimated to cost Rs.450 million.
• Animal Ration: Approximately 1,40,000 Metric tonnes of concentrates at the rate of 200 grams per day per animal and 3,50,000 Metric tonnes of wheat straw at the rate of 500 grams per day per animal will be required for the 10 weeks period. It is estimated to cost around Rs.2170 million.
• Shelter: In order to provide shelter in the Relief Camps, about 50,000 tents may be required at initial stage, which may cost around Rs.250 million.
• Water Supply: About 200 Bowzers/Water Carriers will be required for delivery of water supplies to the scattered camps in the province till improvement of the situation. The estimated cost will be Rs.20 million.
• Medicines/Medical facilities: According to a study the population is suffering from dehydration, Pneumonia, Typhoid, T.B. and other related diseases affecting about 15 to 20 percent of the affected population i.e. around 300,000. The Veterinary medicines will also be required for treatment of internal and external parasites for about 500,000 animals. Estimated cost for medicines/food supplements comes out to Rs.40 million.
• Water Pumps/Water Tanks: About 2000 water pumps and 2000 tanks are to be installed in the relief camps for which about Rs.40 million will be needed.
• Transportation etc: In addition to above facilities, funds will also be required for transportation, construction of sheds for animals and supply of items of daily use to the affected population for which about Rs.50 million may be required in the first phase of the operation as follows:

• The magnitude of the crises is such that the Provincial Government cannot support the relief operations out of its own and therefore foreign agencies/donors are required to be pursued for extending liberal support and financial assistance for conducting relief operations for the initial (May-Mid July), Medium term (Mid July-onwards till implementation of Rehabilitation Plan) and Long Term (Rehabilitation Plan) period.
• In view of scattered population in the province all over, all of them cannot be brought to a few relief camps, and in consequence thereof the persons engaged in relief operations need logistic support for their mobility and for delivery of goods and services to the door steps of the affected population. At least 48,4x4 pickups are to be provided to Deputy Commissioners for conducting relief operations smoothly in view of vast expanse of the area of operations and, wide scattering of the population.
• In view of depletion of the water resources through out Balochistan, it will be naïve to assume that rain fall in June/July and onwards of the current year will be sufficient to sustain the whole lot of population in the present drought hit areas. It may therefore be considered to seek support and financial assistance for development or extension of water resources in the province of Balochistan on massive scale. The next step will be the rehabilitation of affected population so that they can earn their livelihood and for which a massive package of financial assistance will be needed.
• In this chain, joint studies by team of experts have already been advised to examine the possibility of renovation/augmentation of existing water resources or shifting/migration of population or extension of canal system or other devices for rehabilitation/resettlement of the affected population depending upon findings of expert team keeping the following points in view:

• Transportation
• Resettlement of the disturbed population
• Development of sustainable sources of water
• Income Generation Modules
(Syed Abbas Husain)
            Senior Member/BOR

S. #     Divisions     Cattles         Buffaloes     Sheeps     Goats     Camels     Horses     Mules     Asses     Poultry         G.Total

1. QUETTA            124998            7616         1086463        852042     29270     4259        696         22539        785836         2833719

    Quetta District     10392             5496         67204             39738        2                 204          43             429         100071            223579
    Pishin District         69991         1928         557089         434507         2400         3637         557         15740         363869         1449668
    Killa Abdullah Dist. 41966         192         186504         99015         375             393             96             3219         224983          556743
    Chagai District         2649             ----         195716         278782     26493           25             ---             3151             96913         603729

2. ZHOB DIVISION 341098         6047         3872416     1967928     42786     5954             344             59011         923503        7219087

    Loralai District     71495           3455         747190         312920         1890         438           53             5501            237026         1379968
    Musakhail District 99485         ---             703882         447014         20606       173          --                2884           223884        1497929
    Barkhan District     48430         1324         395243         144456         6176         1256        --                 6812         120259            723956
    Killa Saifullah Dist. 50153         219         935061         659920         10927         3418         213         28063           236275        1924239
    Zhob District         71535         1049         1091050         403618         3187         669         78             15751         106059        1692996

3. SIBI DIVISION     227954         7986         1729047     1405158         81812         15414     516         82254         536824        4086965

    Sibi District         39432             1046         138310         1680824         2965         1492         195         5160         145473        497897
    Kohlu District     99278             165           1127534     757443           48443         7926         --             53043         201679    2113511
    Dera Bugti Dist.    87782         3775         425290         557814         30404         5996         230             22850         150755     1284896
    Ziarat District       1462             --             37913             111077         --                 --             91             1201             38917         190661

4. NASIRABAD DIV 393910        131309     472617       1203338         44003         14131     906         82939           895175         3238328

    Jaffarabad District     176989     83013     198473          238982         1737          1576         537         26650         403314         1131271
    Nasirabad District     87061         46485     119610         175055         1699         4620         263         13537         188394         636724
    Bolan District             96575         1339       109460         523670         15791         2795         99         21080         184539         955348
    Jhal Magsi District     33285         472         45074         265631         24776         5140         7             21672         118928         514985

5. KALAT DIVISION 212235     8323         3610619         3359064         127981     2269         358         120356     1280267         8721472

    Lasbela District         92209         5003     269390         726979         24161         918             90         22809             202988         1344547
    Mastung District       2066             545    411938         262582         7853         125                 --         6642             177646           869306
   Kalat District             27195             134     1233915      701360         40084         97                 132         44431         292057         2339405
    Khuzdar District         65052         2732      973512        896294         14862         942             39             37361         311472         2302266
    Awaran District         15670             --         95521         209578         5611             50             --                 2549         120911         449890
    Kharan District         10043             --         626343         562271         35410         137             97             6564             175193         1416058

6. MEKRAN DIVISION 40775         82     149857             581920         12650         491         168         15790             272303             1074036

    Turbat District         26183           51         55491             388512         7592             420         122         9015             153399             640785
    Gwadar District         3619             --         5687               81350           1259             --               7         2484                 45798             140199
    Panjgur District         10973         31         88679             112058         3799             71             39         4291                 73111         293052

        Total=         1348978   161363  10841029   9369450     338502     42518     2888     382889             4693988 27173607