The threat of drought that was visible but distant on the horizon in March has now become quite real. In March, there was still hope that things might improve with rains in the following months. Unfortunately, the months of April and May proved to be relatively dry with the rainfall significantly less than normal as a result of the La Nina weather phenomenon. The whole country has been affected by the lack of rains especially areas of Sindh and Balochistan. Even the Federal Capital, Islamabad, could not escape its ravages and has encountered water shortages. According to the Capital Development Authority, in the end of May, Islamabad was receiving 47.97 million gallons of water per day against the requirement of 111 million gallons per day which is being managed through supply on alternate days and in some locations, the residents go without water for even more than two days at a time.

The seriousness of the drought can be gauged by the fact that the State Bank of Pakistan has recently reported that the drought will cost the national exchequer $ 927 million in the third quarter.

Meteorological Background of the Drought

The drought prevalent in the country these days does not owe its existence to a single factor; rather it is the culmination of a number of elements. However, the single most important factor remaining the La Nina, which resulted in abnormal weather conditions. For the last year, Pakistan has been a focus of this phenomenon and it was responsible for the intense heat and minimal rains the whole winter and even in the months of April and May this year. This situation has impacted negatively on river flows and resulted in regional tensions over supply of water as many canals have practically dried up and the others operating with minimal flows.

Impact on Economy

The drought that is yet to show its full face has already had a sizable impact on the economy of the country. The State Bank has calculated the effect of the drought to the tune of $927 million in the third quarter. As a result of this blow to the economy, the anticipated GDP growth rate of 4.5% will not be achieved, rather, the GDP growth rate will fall to less than 3% resulting in the stagnation of the per capita income. As Pakistan is an agriculture based economy, the major industries owe their production to the agricultural output which has significantly reduced due to the drought resulting in increasing the country's dependence on imports thus adversely affecting the "Balance of Trade" of the country.

Another major setback of the drought is the reduction in the country's ability to produce hydroelectricity due to lack of water. To remedy this, additional furnace oil has to be imported for the production of thermal electricity further dwindling the foreign exchange reserves. It is estimated to cause an additional loss of nearly $ 1.2 billion to the country.

Impact on Agriculture

According to official sources, the losses in Rabi crops will be more than Rs. 28.50 billion. Wheat production went down by 2.57 million tons this year because of the drought. Current production is estimated to be 18.53 million tons as compared to 21.1 million tons in 1999-2000. Similarly, the losses expected during the Kharif season are approximately Rs. 29 billion. Among the Kharif crops, cotton production will fall from 10.6 million bales last year to 9.7 million bales costing Rs. 9 billion. Rice production will go down from 4.8 million tons to 3.9 million tons costing Rs. 10 billion. Sugarcane production will fall to 35 million tons as compared to 44 million tons costing Rs. 10 billion. The drought has also adversely affected the production of pulses. According to official sources, the production of gram is expected to decrease to 540,000 tons as compared to 565,000 tons in 1999-2000.

Impact on Livestock Sector

Livestock sector has also been affected very adversely by the drought. According to the official sources, the losses to this sector are worth almost Rs. 15 billion. Out of this amount, Punjab suffered a loss of Rs. 5.5 billion, NWFP Rs. 4.4 billion, Balochistan Rs. 3.5 billion and Sindh Rs. 1.63 billion.

Province-wise situation of losses in the livestock sector is as follows:

Province	(Rs. Million)	Affected Livestock population (millions)
Punjab	5,494	5.12
NWFP	4,426	6.00
Balochistan	3,522	9.31
Sindh	1,631	3.08
Total	15,073	23.51

Province-wise affects of the drought are as follows:

Punjab

The province of Punjab is affected to a great extent by this drought as is evident from the government's relief programme for the drought-hit areas. Punjab government has recently allocated Rs. 250 million for the drought-affected areas. According to official sources, 60 to 90 percent of the wheat crop in the arid areas has been destroyed by the lack of rains while in the irrigated areas this loss is reported at 10 to15 percent. In arid areas 7.4 million acres of land was affected while in irrigated areas, 700,000 acres of land was affected. According to the Government of Punjab, the wheat crop in 2,632 villages was damaged and the livestock sector is estimated to have suffered a loss of nearly Rs. 5.5 billion. In Punjab, ten districts are arid and they are the most affected by the drought. Among them are Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur, Lodhran, Chakwal, Rawalpindi, Jehlum, Attock, Mianwali, and Gujrat.

Balochistan

Balochistan is the worst affected province from this drought. It was adversely affected by the drought of 2000 and low rains in 2001 has significantly worsened the situation. The province received almost 50% of the normal rains in the summer while winter rains turned out to be only 37% of the normal. According to the provincial authorities, 1.911 million people have been affected while 9.31 million livestock have been affected out of which 1.76 million have perished. A total of 1.973 million acres of cultivable land has also been affected by the drought.

Last year, a Relief Commissionerate was constituted by the Government of Balochistan along with a Drought Crisis Control Center and the Provincial Disaster Management Committee for the management of relief efforts in drought affected areas. The Federal Government as well as other government sources have already contributed more than 1.1 billion rupees in cash while nearly Rs. 400 million worth of in kind donations were received from various Pakistani as well as foreign organizations.

Sindh

During the last year, Sindh has experienced the brunt of a number of natural calamities such as drought, cyclone, earthquake etc. The total losses that the province had to face due to these natural calamities amount to Rs. 145.8 billion out of which almost Rs. 33 billion are attributed to the drought and water shortage, Rs. 100 billion to the sea intrusion, Rs. 7.93 billion to the cyclone and Rs. 4.574 billion to the earthquake. The areas of Sindh worst affected by the drought are Tharparkar, Mirpurkhas, Thatta, Sanghar and Kohistan regions.

NWFP

Over 2.2 million acres of cultivable land in NWFP is likely to be affected by the recent drought during the Kharif 2001 cropping season. Especially affected are the rain-fed areas in the southern and northern parts of the province. The Government of NWFP is seeking financial assistance of around Rs. 1.4 billion from the Federal Government. The districts of NWFP to be affected by the drought include Mardan, Swabi, Kohat, Hangu, Karak, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Haripur, Battagram, Buner, Bannu and Tank.

Current Status of Mitigation and Control Measures

The government has initiated efforts to remedy the situation created by the drought through immediate relief as well as rehabilitation of the drought affectees for which, the Federal Government is considering the allocation of Rs. 10 billion. As a long-term measure, the government also intends to allocate Rs. 120 billion in the future for investment in water resource development. Accurate figures will be available after budget announcement towards the end of this month.

The United Nations System in Pakistan has also initiated measures to gauge the impact of the drought in the affected areas. It has completed a Non-Food Assessment of the drought-affected areas in Sindh and Balochistan. A Crop and Food Assessment Mission has also been launched and the results of that mission will be available during the first week of July. Based on the results of both the assessments, the UN will initiate relief measures in cooperation with the Government of Pakistan and the international community.

Missions from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank visited the country to assess the impact of drought and to suggest remedial measures. The mission from the Asian Development Bank has been completed. The UN is in close coordination with these missions and a Memorandum of Understanding has been drafted for reaching an understanding between the United Nations and the Banks to avoid overlaps and facilitate further cooperation in the future. The World Bank is likely to provide $250 million to Pakistan to lessen the impacts of the drought. The Asian Development Bank also intends to reallocate a sum of $ 125 Million from existing programmes for the same purpose. Details of the "National and International Response" for the drought stricken areas of Sindh and Balochistan are available in Annexes 'A' and 'B'.

Future Outlook

According to the Meteorological Department, the climatic cycle is expected to return to normal and the monsoon rains are likely to be normal this year. According to the Met. Office, the La Nina weather phenomenon is showing signs of subsiding and the climatic perimeters will also return to normal in due course. However, this improvement would not result in any immediate relief to winter rain zones, i.e., major parts of Balochistan, Northern Areas and Kohistan Range of Sindh Province. The situation in these areas would keep on deteriorating until possible start of winter rains around end of the year.

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UN Information on drought in Pakistan can be accessed at

www.un.org.pk

National and International Response

for Drought Stricken Areas of

Balochistan and Sindh Provinces ^*

IN CASH

National
 

Bilateral
 

UN Assistance
 

IN KIND

  National
 

Bilateral
 

UN Assistance
 

UN Information on drought in Pakistan can be accessed at

www.un.org.pk

ANNEX "B"

Summary of Relief Support/Activities

Undertaken by the Government of Balochistan

Upto May, 2001