The advent of rains in the month of June resulted in alleviating some of the short term affects of the drought prevailing in the country. According the Pakistan Meteorological Office, above normal monsoon rains are expected in the country but the areas outside the monsoon corridor are not likely to receive the rains needed to mitigate the damage done by the drought. Although these rains will relieve some of the affects created by La-Nina hounding the country for the last three years, it will take several good rainy seasons to recharge the lost underground water levels.

The rains caused a great relief to the residents of various cities of the country that had been suffering from its affects in the form of lack of drinking water. Among them were the citizens of Rawalpindi and Islamabad who had been especially distraught with the regular shortages of water in the months of May and June. The recent rains have helped to increase the water levels in the reservoirs meant for supplying drinking water to these cities.

The amount of damage done by the drought during the first six months of the year is just coming into focus now. A number of national and international institutions have quantified the damage and the picture thus presented shows that the drought played a significant role in substantially reducing production of various sectors especially agriculture which has also had its impact on the growth of the economy and exports.

The drought has, to date, not been a phenomenon frequently seen in this part of the world, but now, it seems that it may reoccur and efforts will have to be made to enable the system to cope with it effectively. Already, the two droughts in 1999-2000 and 2000-2001 have stretched the coping abilities of the existing systems to the limit and it has barely been able to check the situation from becoming a catastrophe. Timely action by the government and relief in the weather are to credit for this.

From its formation in 1947 to the recent past, Pakistan has been blessed with a fully operational irrigation system and plenty of water from the rivers that flow through it. Up till quite recently, the supply of the water was greater than or enough to meet the demand of all the end users but the rapid growth in population started putting unprecedented pressure on the irrigation system. The passage of time has degraded it to a large degree and there is a need for its massive restoration and improvement to meet the increased demands.

Government’s Assessment of the Drought.

According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan, the drought was one of the most significant factors responsible for the less than anticipated growth performance. The survey terms it as the worst drought in the history of the country. According to the government, 40 percent of the country's water needs went unmet.

"The drought has wreaked havoc in 58 of the total 106 districts of the country, especially impacting rainfed and rangeland areas. Causing devastation and loss of human lives in semi-arid regions, the drought eliminated of US $ 247 million worth of livestock in the first five months of this year alone. Given that 70 percent of the entire population of Pakistan is rural based and dependent on agriculture for its livelihood, negative agricultural growth of 2.5 percent (estimated) has not only impacted agro-based industry, but displaced a large number of the rural poor. Massive migratory trends have been witnessed, therefore, to irrigated and urban areas. The losses of the agricultural sector will also trickle down to the banking and financial sectors, in view of farmers’

outstanding loan obligations and financing needs of agro-based industries.

Massive decline in floodwater in Sindh has led to rapid sea intrusion in the delta, raising salinity levels in underground water and spurring cattle migration to irrigated areas as well. In NWFP and Balochistan, the permanent damage includes dwindling vegetation cover, almost to the point of disappearing altogether in the latter province. Finally, excessive depletion of underground water resources has occurred and will not be compensated without strong efforts at conservation, as well as immediate change in water use practices.

The water situation has further adversely impacted electricity and gas distribution. It is estimated that even with adequate rainfall this summer and winter, the cumulative effect of water shortages over the last two years may take up to the next two years to reverse, given the permanent losses in livestock, reservoir levels and household assets. Real GDP growth in the current fiscal year is estimated to be 2.6 percent, against a target of 4.5 percent in the last budget. The fiscal impact of the drought is estimated to be as high as Rs 25 billion, given the lower nominal GDP growth and resulting revenue losses as well as higher federal assistance to disaster-hit areas. Estimated balance of payments losses stand at US $ 927 million, in export losses and higher oil imports to supplant the loss of hydel energy this year."

The survey further adds:

"Real GDP was targeted to grow by 4.5 percent in 2000-01, with agriculture and manufacturing growing by 2.6 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively. While fixing the growth target for the outgoing fiscal year some shortages of irrigation water as a result of the drought situation were anticipated. However, the severe drought that hit the country not only continued but resulted in water shortages of up to 40 percent of normal supplies. The shortage of water adversely affected the performance of the major crops and consequently reversed the previously rising trend in agricultural output. The value added in agriculture consequently registered negative growth of 2.5 percent as against positive 6.1 percent growth last year.

The impact of drought has also been felt in electricity and gas distribution compounding the exogenous shock to the economy from the energy sector. Lower reservoir levels in both Mangla and Tarbela and lower releases of water from these reservoirs resulted in a shortfall of 2.4 billion KWH of hydel generation. Provisional estimates suggest that value-added in electricity and gas distribution has registered a decline of 3.1 percent as

against the target of a positive growth of 5.3 percent. Since agriculture plus electricity and gas distribution account for almost 30 percent of GDP, any loss in these sectors of great magnitude is bound to adversely affect overall GDP growth. Accordingly, real GDP grew provisionally by 2.6 percent in 2000-01 as against the target of 4.5 percent and last year’s revised estimate of 3.9 percent."

Drought Assessment by UN

The United Nations System in Pakistan released Drought Assessment Reports on Pakistan on 12 July, 2001. The findings of the reports were shared with the representatives of the donor community in a briefing meeting at the UN House in Islamabad. The Pakistan Drought Assessment 2001 comprises of two studies undertaken by the UN Agencies to assess the impact of the drought on the "Crop and Food" and "Non-Food" situation.

The Crop and Food assessment, carried out from 23 May-18 June 2001, covers situation of drought at national level. This assessment has been undertaken by FAO and WFP in cooperation with UNDP and is based on discussions of the mission with Federal, Provincial and District Authorities, UN Agencies, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and NGOs based in the country, and field visits to all the provinces, particularly extensively in the drought affected provinces of Balochistan, Sindh and Cholistan region in Punjab. The mission closely gauged the affect of drought on crops, fruits, vegetables and livestock production with the objective to assess the impact of drought on food security situation and identification of vulnerable segments of the population in need of emergency food support.

According to the findings of the mission, the drought has decimated livestock and severely affected fruit orchards and rainfed cereal production. In some of the drought affected districts, livestock sector losses range up-to 60 percent. In Balochistan, fruit production has been severely affected with irreversible damage in large tracts of land, particularly in the northern parts. Large numbers of orchards have dried up and the farmers are facing financial ruin. Wheat production in the rain-fed areas is almost 70 percent below the average of the last five years and 62 percent below the last year’s reduced crop. However, as more than 90 per cent of wheat production is irrigated, the overall impact of drought has been less as according to the latest figures, the overall wheat production is 11 percent lower than last year’s bumper crop of nearly 21 million tons. The 2001 rice crop is estimated to be around 3.9 million tons as compared to the last year’s bumper production of 5.2 million tons. Cereal production during the year together with the opening stocks would be just enough to meet the demand during this year. There may, however, be a need for some wheat import to replenish reserve stocks.

The three-year drought has intensified dependence on migrant wage labor. However, the increased supply of labor has resulted in declining of wage rates from 40 to 60 percent. Although nominal price of wheat has remained stable, decline in wage rates coupled with reduced prices fetched for livestock have seriously eroded coping capacity of small livestock herders in the drought affected areas. The decline in consumption of important food items like milk, meat and vegetables is a major nutrition concern particularly for women and children who already have high malnutrition and anemia in the resource poor communities all over the country. Many households in rural Sindh are reported to be surviving only on chilies, onion and bread. However, the government’s interventions to mitigate the effects of drought have so far been effective in averting large-scale human suffering.

Although the forecast for the monsoon rains is considered quite favorable, many of the severely affected districts fall outside the monsoon range. As these districts receive winter rains between December and April, improvement in pasture, water and food security conditions are not expected until after December while harvest is not expected until April. The mission has therefore, strongly recommended targeted food assistance to be provided to nearly 349,000 vulnerable people for a period of six months in the districts of Chagai, Kharan, Pishin, Killa Saifullah, Dadu, Thatta and Badin. A number of other useful recommendations have been made for short, medium and long-term measures to mitigate the affects of drought in different parts of the country. The recommendations include urgent assistance in the form of feed and vaccines for livestock, seeds for the next cropping season and credit facilities for income generation in nearly twenty-four severely affected districts of the country. The report has also hinted that easing the effects of the prolonged drought conditions and replenishment of ground-water levels will require several good rainfall seasons.

The Non-Food Assessment has been undertaken by UNICEF in cooperation with WHO and UNDP. It was completed in the month of April, 2001 to assess the affect of drought on health, nutrition, drinking water and sanitation in the Provinces of Balochistan and Sindh.

In Balochistan, the districts of Qila Saifullah, Zhob, Loralai, Ziarat, Pishin, Khuzdar and Kharan were visited and the affects of the drought studied. According to the findings of the study, the situation in the province at that stage was not very alarming due to the rains in the month of April. In women and children, presence of anemia and deficiencies were noted.

The mission visited two districts of Sindh Province namely Dadu and Thatta. According to the findings of the mission, some of the areas studied had been suffering from lack of rains for the past nearly seven years and while water was available, in many places it was brackish and its quality not good. The situation in drought affected areas of Sindh was reported to be worse than Balochistan. The diseases commonly found in the areas studied were malaria, diarrhea and tuberculosis. The mission has made recommendations for repair, maintenance and cleaning of the wells and hand pumps etc. in the affected regions including training of NGOs and Government staff in nutrition counseling of the community members and intensification of immunization activities as well as TB and malaria control measures especially in Manchar Lake area.

The UN Resident Coordinator has made an appeal to the heads of UN Agencies in Pakistan to look into the possibility of assisting the government in the implementation of missions’ recommendations. In his submission of the reports to the Federal and Provincial Governments, he has requested them to implement the recommendations, which undoubtedly would help the affected communities to recover from the affects of this prolonged drought.

The Provincial Governments have drawn-up short, medium and long-term plans for recovery from the drought. The World Bank and Asian Development Bank have agreed to reallocate US$ 140 million and 100 million respectively out of the proceeds of some of the existing credits in the country to fund a Drought Emergency Recovery Assistance Plan (DERA). Modalities are being worked out presently to channelize resources to support the drought recovery and mitigation activities.

Details of the national and international response including support by OXFAM and Islamic Relief are given in the attached annexes.

UN Information on drought in Pakistan can be accessed at

ANNEX "A"

National and International Response

for Drought Stricken Areas

Balochistan and Sindh

IN CASH

National
 

Bilateral  

UN Assistance
 

IN KIND

  National
 

Bilateral
 

UN Assistance
 

Punjab

National

International

Summary of Relief Support/Activities

Undertaken by the Government of Balochistan

Upto May, 2001

ANNEX "C"

Summary of Relief Support/Activities Undertaken by OXFAM in Balochistan and Sindh