The availability of water in the country has been adversely affected by below normal rains since 1998 and has been further compounded, particularly in the rain-fed areas, by the continued dry spell. The prevailing drought has seriously affected the southern, south-eastern, north-western and western regions of the country including some areas in the north.

The provinces of Balochistan and Sindh continue to be under the stress of drought along with Cholistan region in Punjab as well as the Southern Districts of NWFP. In the province of Balochistan, for the last three years, the monsoon rains, which generally occur in the months of July-September, have touched only eastern areas of the province with limited and scattered precipitation whereas large parts of the central and western areas received no rain. However, the current winter rains and snow which have taken place after a lapse of three years, have provided some relief to the northern and northeastern parts. The Sindh province and rain-fed regions of Punjab and NWFP are suffering equally from the shortage of water due to the below normal monsoon of last year and nearly forty percent below normal current winter rains. The water level situation in the major reservoirs reached a critical stage during March and April this year. However, the situation has improved due to the rise in temperature which has resulted in an increase in snow melt. Luckily, northern regions of the country had a better snowfall this year, 15-20% below normal as against the previous year estimates of 40% below normal. Despite the improvement in river flows, the overall water availability is of concern to the nation. However, the future monsoon outlook seems encouraging with close to normal rains which for sure would not be sufficient to makeup for the serious deficiencies of the last few years and would require three to four good rainy seasons to cover the drop in the under-ground water levels. The monsoon is likely to start a week in advance around the last week of June.

Based on an analysis of the drought of the last four years, it appears that the country is in a dry weather cycle which may well last anywhere between seven to ten years. Hence, there is an urgent need to work on a strategy for creating mass awareness for water conservation and introduction of measures to harvest each and every drop of water falling on earth as well as implementation of drought mitigation methodologies to recover from this looming crisis.

Impact on Economy:

The drought of the year 2001 has been termed as one of the worst in the history of the country and can be judged from the fact that it was the major cause behind the low economic growth rate of 2.6 % of last year. According to the figures released by the Ministry of Finance, the drought caused a loss of Rs. 25 billion to the national exchequer in the year 2000-2001. The position of GDP is going to be the same in the current year as the situation has not improved to any significant level due to the prevailing drought and the aftermath of September 11, 2001.

The drought has led to a significant loss of livestock and crops and a rapid deterioration of health and sanitary conditions in the affected communities. Due to low precipitation and lack of adequate water resource management, water tables have been steadily dropping in the drought affected areas resulting in population displacements in some of the most affected regions.

Effect on Wheat and other Crops:

The water shortage has negatively impacted on majority of the crops e.g., as against the target of 20 million tones of wheat during the year 2001-02, the production is estimated at 18.44 million tones. The normal yearly requirement of wheat in the country is 21 million tones which would easily be met from the last year's reserves. However, the reserves would need to be stocked through some arrangement, i.e., import or substitution with rice or other cereals. Production of other crops has also been impacted negatively e.g., cotton 10.07 million bales as against the previous year's production of 10.68 million bales. Rice 3.891 million tones as against the target of 4.025 million tones. Vegetable production had also some shortfalls, e.g., onion 1.405 million tones as against a target of 1.542 million tones.

The current water shortage is likely to adversely affect both the acreage and production of kharif crops, a factor very clear from the acreage and production targets being fixed by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture for the current crop.

Effect on Livestock

Despite low monsoon and winter rains, there have been no reports of livestock casualties from any part of the country. However, productivity losses have been observed in the regions under severe drought stress which are estimated to be within the range of about 10 percent. Some movement of livestock to irrigated zones in search of water and feed has been reported in Cholistan region.

Drinking Water Supply Situation

Low and non-availability of drinking water has been reported from many regions in the country. Major cities like Karachi, Islamabad and Rawalpindi are facing water shortages which is likely to persist until the onset of monsoon. Rainfed regions and irrigated zones with brackish underground water have also faced difficulties in access to adequate supplies of drinking water. However, the situation has improved in the irrigated zones with the availability of water in canals during the later part of May due to improved river flows and increase in water levels of major reservoirs.

Drought Situation in different Regions/Districts of Balochistan and
Sindh Provinces:

Balochistan:

Northern Highlands

This ecological zone mainly consists of semi-arid steppe type mountainous areas covering parts of Quetta, Pishin, Kila Abdullah, Kila Saifullah, Ziarat, Kalat and Zhob districts. The rainfall patterns during the past year have been mostly similar throughout this zone with insignificant snowfall, medium winter and spring rains and sporadic monsoon showers. The medium rains have helped the regeneration of rangelands but the impact on aquifer levels has not been significantly positive except for the areas where delay action dams existed in the catchement areas. It is obvious that the orchards cut down during the drought will take at least 5 to 8 years to reach the fruit bearing age if planted now. Some sections of population have emigrated from their villages in search of on-farm or construction related wage employment.

Midlands

Midlands comprise of plateau like areas lying in parts of Mastung, Kalat, Khuzdar, Dera Bugti, Kohlu, Loralai, Sibi and Zhob districts. Rains have failed for a stretch of almost four years, devastating the rangelands and the water resources on which people depend for agriculture and livestock. The medium intensity monsoon rains during 2001 followed by mild to significant spring showers in 2002 have alleviated the gravity of situation to some extent.

Kachhi Plains

The dusty desert like areas of Kachhi district and small tracts of valley bottoms in Mastung district are classified under this category. Kachhi plains lie in the drainage basin of the largest basin system of Balochistan called Nari river whose catchment spreads over most of the Northern Highlands and Midlands. The failure of monsoon during the drought forced large number of people to emigrate to canal irrigated areas of Pat Feeder and Kirthar to work as waged labourers. The last monsoon was too mild to suffice for the restoration of livelihoods at an optimal scale. The area did not benefit from the winter rains in the adjoining regions.

Great Iranian Desert

The areas falling in this category are situated in Chaghi, Kharan, Awaran and parts of Gwadar and Panjgur districts. The area has been badly hit by the drought because of the fragility of natural resource balance. Some parts of the area have received low rains in the winter of 2001 and medium rains during the current spring giving limited respite to the people but majority of the area is still going through a dry spell.

Coastal Desert

The arid sub-tropical desert of Balochistan covers large parts of Gwadar, Lasbela, Panjgur and Kech districts. This area receives extremely low rainfall. Some areas receive flood water from the drainage basins of adjoining midland hills and extensive oasis based date palm as well as annual cropping is practiced on small tracts. This area being chronically parched can not be considered drought hit per se, except some areas that depend on rain water for drinking purposes such as Gwadar town.

Sindh:

Karachi

It is the thickly populated urban region of the province and comes under Coastal Desert zone. This region came under great stress during the drought. The situation has slightly improved due to the low intensity rains during the last monsoon and this winter.

Hyderabad and Mirpur Khas

The agriculture in Hyderabad, and Mirpur Khas is mostly under the canal irrigation system. Low intensity monsoon and winter rains provided some relief to these areas but the fragile balance of natural resources is still under stress.

Tharparker

Tharparker district lies in the Great Indian Desert and scattered rain fed agriculture is practiced in some parts. The monsoon in 2001 provided medium intensity showers restoring the vegetative cover but due to lack of winter rains it is returning to desert conditions again.

Sanghar, Sukkur and Khairpur

Sanghar, Khairpur and Sukkur districts lie in riverine areas along the Indus river. The drop in the flow of Indus and absence of rainfall wreaked disaster upon the marginalised sections of economy, during the drought. Medium to very low showers during the last monsoon provided some relief, however, the situation is again tight due to limited winter rains.

Thatta

Thatta covers areas lying in both riverine and coastal eco-systems. Perennially irrigated agriculture under canals as well as independent sources were adversely affected during the drought. The monsoon rains were of low intensity and provided limited relief.

Dadu

Dadu district lies in the foothills of Kirthar Plateau and livestock keeping, flood irrigation as well as perennial irrigation are the traditional sources of livelihood. The rainfall during the monsoon was quite low, but small scale restoration of flood irrigation systems occurred because of floods emanating from Kirthar catchment.

Punjab Province:

Due to below normal monsoon rains and nearly 50% of winter rainfall, most of the province has continued to face the affects of drought. The most affected is the Cholistan region and other rainfed districts of the province particularly, Mianwali and Photohar region. The reduced canal flows and closures have to some extent affected rabi production and is now likely to have production short falls in the current kharif season.

NWFP:

The winter rains have particularly improved drought situation in the northern districts of the province. However, the southern districts continue to be in the drought stress. The monsoon rains may give some further relief but it may not help some of the southern districts which may have to wait for improvement until the upcoming winter season.