The specter of drought that has been looming over the horizon of the country still remains with the possibility of dire consequences in the future. It already has had a significant impact on the economy of the nation, especially in the agriculture, electricity and gas distribution sectors. Last year, drought once again proved to be an impeding factor in the country's economic growth. The economy had to grapple with other extraneous factors such as the post 11 September slump in the world economy and the tension at the eastern borders, but drought remained the most visible factor in the equation and has prevented Pakistan from achieving higher economic growth during the past financial year.

The water availability situation in urban areas of the country has been very unpredictable. The state of reservoirs supplying the cities has been undulating between empty and full depending on the rains. Many metropolitans such as Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Quetta and Abbottabad suffered frequently from shortages of water, a situation that remained temporary, but severe enough to confirm the reality of the drought.

Government's Assessment of the Drought

According to the Government of Pakistan, the drought caused water shortages of up to 51 percent as compared to 40 percent last year. This lack of water has not only caused less than anticipated growth in the agricultural sector, but also affected the power sector. Lower reservoirs in Tarbela and Mangla resulting in lower releases of water, caused a shortfall in hydel generation. This forced WAPDA to purchase more thermal energy from IPPs causing negative value addition.

The Economic Survey has termed the drought as the major factor behind the less than envisaged performance of the economy especially the agricultural sector. The government had to revise the target for GDP growth rate from 4.0 % (2.0% for agriculture and 6.2 % for manufacturing sectors) to 3.3% (1.9% for agriculture and 3.8 % for manufacturing sectors). Although the real GDP grew by 3.6%, surpassing the target, growth in agriculture was 1.4 %, which was 0 .5% less than the target.

Effect on Crops

The agricultural situation has improved to a great degree as compared to the last year, i.e., from a negative growth rate of 2.6 % to a positive figure of 1.4%, which is still less than the target of 1.9% but an improvement over the last year.

According to official figures, wheat production went down by 2.9 percent as compared to last year. Last year, the production was 19,024 thousand tons while this year, it is estimated to be 18,475 thousand tons.

The drought caused a decrease in the production of cotton by 1.1 %, which decreased from 10.7 million bales in the last year to 10.6 million bales this year. The production of rice has also been adversely affected by the drought. Its production decreased by 19 % and was reduced from 4,803 thousand tons last year to 3,882 thousand tons this year. The production of sugarcane increased despite the drought, a fact attributed to judicious use of fertilizer and water and better management. The total production of sugarcane this year was 48,042 thousand tons, which marks an increase of 10.2% as compared to last year when the production was 43,606 thousand tons.

Present Situation of Drought

The Government of Balochistan has declared all the 22 districts as calamity hit on account of drought. The only exception are urban parts of Quetta and Pat Feeder region. The affected districts are Quetta, Chagai, Kharan, Khuzdar, Kalat, Mastung, Loralai, Killa Saifullah, Pishin, Zhob, Kohlu, Lasbela, Sibi, Dera Bugti, Ziarat, Awaran, Kech, Panjgoor, Killa Abdullah, Gwadar, Kachhi and un-irrigated areas of Tehsils Chattar and Tamboo of Nasirabad District.

The Government of Sindh has likewise declared the entire Tharparkar and Dadu districts calamity hit along with parts of 10 other districts as well as the defunct Malir district. The districts declared calamity hit are: Tharparkar, Dadu, Thatta, Mirpurkhas, Badin, Ghotki, Sanghar, Larkana, Jacobabad, Sukkur, Khairpur, Shikarpur and parts of the defunct Malir district.

Attock District in Punjab has also been declared calamity hit due to the drought by the Provincial Government. Additionally, the rainfed regions of Punjab province namely: Pothohar belt, Mianwali, D.G. Khan, Rajanpur and southern districts of Punjab province continue to suffer from serious drought affects.

The NWFP Government has declared Haripur and Mansehra districts as calamity hit. The southern districts of the province namely: Kohat, Karak, Bannu and D.I. Khan also are impacted by the ill effects of drought.

Future Outlook

With the normal monsoon rains forecast by the Pakistan Meteorological Department, it seems that the situation would improve to some degree in the monsoon regions during the current months, though it would take more than one monsoon season with above normal rains to completely mitigate the damage done by the drought for the last four years. The position of winter rain zones would, however, remain the same until end of the year as the winter rains would not start until about mid of December and its incidence would very much depend on the evolving global meteorological situation and cloud patterns developing at that point in time. Meanwhile, scattered monsoon rains have already started resulting in a pleasant change in the weather and water availability, especially in the metropolitan areas other than the major cities of Sindh. In Islamabad, the Capital Development Authority has reduced water rationing by 50 % due to increase in the level of water in the reservoirs feeding Islamabad and Rawalpindi. As a result, almost half of the population of Islamabad now receives water on a daily basis. However, cities like Karachi have yet to report an improvement in the area of drinking water supply. Surveys conducted recently in Karak district of NWFP forecast acute shortage of water in the area in the future. The future outlook in case of other regions also gives mixed signals and may only change with persistent improvement in the rainfall patterns at least for the next 2-3 years. The persistence of drought could have a dire effect on the situation of poverty in the country.