Mission Members:
 

MR. ZAHID MAJEED (WFP)
MR. ASLAM KHAN (WFP)
DR. SAEED AHMED (Agronomist, FAO)
MR. MOHAMMAD SHARIF (Agriculture Economist, FAO)
 

                                                                                                                                                            21 June 2000

ABSTRACT

Severe drought has re-emerged in Sindh (for the first time since 1987) due to the lack of rains in the past three years. It has badly affected rain-fed agriculture, livestock and the human population. The absence of 1999-2000 kharif crops, plummeted prices of livestock and increased prices of essential food items have severely eroded the purchasing power of the affected population. The overall nutritional status of the population has been affected due to inadequate energy intake. Although the overall cereal balance sheet at the provincial level is positive, food security at the household level is affected due to poor economic access. Incidence of tuberculosis is on the increase, although there are few reported deaths related to hunger. Women are particularly under stress and are suffering from anaemia.

Livestock mortality, including forced culling, is about 20 percent, while their prices have gone down by 70 percent. Migration to adjoining areas has increased by 20 percent. An estimated 739,000 people have been affected in Thar, Achhro, Kohistan and Kachho deserts.

Underground water is generally available at varying depths from 30 to 150 meters, but is highly brackish. Water tables are falling by 0.5 to 1.0 meter annually due to poor recharge. There is an acute shortage of potable water in the entire area.

The Government has responded well to the drought situation through various relief measures, including free and subsidized distribution of wheat, cash compensation and accelerated provision of health and veterinary services through mobile units. Contributions from the private sector, mainly in the form of food items, have provided temporary relief to the affected population that was easily accessible.

There is an urgent need for seeds for the next kharif crops, feed and roughage for the livestock. Drought is not new to these people. They have shown strong reliance and manage to survive with their traditional coping mechanisms. They hope that the rains will return this year. However, if there are no rains, the affected population will be in a very precarious situation and will need humanitarian relief assistance. In such an event, a re-assessment of the situation will be required.

1. Introduction.

The purpose of this mission was to assess the impact of drought in Sindh. It consisted of two members from WFP and two from FAO (local consultants). Ms. Amrita Maitlo (economist) assisted the mission in conducting interviews at the household level. The mission visited 16 villages in Thar (Tharparkar), Achhro (Sanghar) , Kachho and Kohistan (Dadu) deserts and held discussions with the drought-affected people in groups as well as individually. The team also met officials of the Districts Civil Administrations, Departments of Agriculture, Livestock and Relief, the Sindh Arid Zone Development Authority (SAZDA) , the Bureau of Statistics Sindh and the Army monitoring team. It also met representatives of international NGOs (OXFAM, ActionAID) and number of local NGOs and CBOs.

The mission would like to record its deep appreciation for the time given by the Government Officials and the NGOs. A special thanks to the Head of the WFP/Sindh office (Hyderabad) , also a member of the mission, for arranging the meetings and providing logistics support.

2. Background.

Sindh is the third largest province of Pakistan and it covers an area of 140,935 Sq. Km. or 18 percent of the country’s geographical area. Its population is 32 million, representing 23 percent of the total population of the country. About 40 percent of the area of Sindh is arable land and 5 percent is rangeland.

Arid zones in the eastern belt of Sindh borders with India and include Thar region (Tharparkar and Umerkot) and Nara region (Sanghar, Khairpur, Ghotki and Sukkar). Arid zones in the western belt borders with Balochistan and include Kachho and Kohistan regions (Dadu and Thatta).

The arid zones of Tharparkar, UmerKot, Thatta, and Sanghar districts have been severely affected by this recent drought and have been declared as calamity stricken areas by the Government. Ghotki, Thatta, Sukkur and Khairpur are moderately affected districts.

Drought is a recurrent phenomenon in the arid zones of Sindh. Since the 1987 drought, these arid zones experienced 12 relatively good years. The assessment of the 1987 drought, carried out in Thar by the Government of Sindh, UNICEF and SCF, discovered that contrary to public and media perception, there was no famine in the desert. It also concluded that social, economic and demographic changes had destroyed the old ways of life and the institutions that allowed tharis to survive long periods of drought in the past. (Thardeep report 1998).

The recent drought has also caught the attention of the public, media, government and the international community. A number of relief measures are being taken to mitigate its effects on human life. The Thar desert area, being the biggest part of the arid zones in Sindh, has been the focus of relief measures.

3. Situation of agriculture sector

3.1 Land use

There are about 14 million hectares of land that are potentially cultivable while around 5.65 million hectares are actually used. During 1998-1999, the irrigated cropped area of Sindh was 4.11 million hectares (65 percent) and 1.45 million hectares (35%) rain fed.

3.2 Rainfalls and Temperature

There are widespread fluctuations in the amount of rainfall from year to year. Most of the rains fall between July and September during southwest monsoons. Rainfall is the only source of moisture for areas other than those irrigated. This year rainfall was late, highly inadequate and poorly distributed (fig. 1). Precipitation fell up to 70 percent in some areas and by 100 percent in others, at the stations monitored. The reduced rainfall was also accompanied by increased ambient temperature resulting in increased evapo-transpiration.

The cropping system and productivity are highly influenced by the intensity and distribution of rainfall in a given year and supports much needed Kharif crops, such as millet and Guar in Tharparker. Rain-fed wheat is grown in Kachho and Kohistan deserts of Dadu district. These crops either could not be sown due to lack of rain moisture or wiped out due to failure of rains. Due to the continuous drought spell, range grasses, particularly in Tharparkar and Achhro Thar, have dried up completely. Growth of shruks and other vegetation was also affected in Achhro Thar. Drought has also caused lowering of the water table in Achhro Thar, Kachho and Kohistan. Water recharge in these areas is also adversely affected.

3.3 Situation of Water

Water is generally available in many parts of the deserts at a depth of 30 to 150 meters. The water table depth is falling by 0.5 to 1.0 meter annually and has been affected further due to failure of rains in the last three years, resulting in poor water recharge. Rainfall in the monsoon months is the main source of water to support crop growth, rangeland, livestock and human population. Groundwater is limited and the failure of rains aggravated the situation further.

Before the rains, people normally construct small ponds, which are either mud-plastered or cemented to store/conserve rainwater for domestic use and in some cases for animals. The size of these ponds vary from place to place. The stored water is available for a period of from 4 to 6 months, depending on the size of ponds, prevailing weather conditions and its use.

The quality of water is generally very poor and it ranges between 5,000 to 15,000 ppm. It is a chronic problem that has affected the soil since quite some time. Water with this salt load is neither fit for crops nor for humans or livestock. In Achhro Thar, water is found from 15 up to 125 meters depth. A some places, it is not easily accessible. People must travel long distances to get potable drinking water. Camels and donkeys are usually used to lift underground water. Due to vanishing vegetation, the animals, particularly the donkeys, are getting weaker and they are taking longer time to lift water from deeper wells.

In the Kachho desert, potable water is scarce and whatever water is available near the ground surface (around 3 to 4 meters) is highly polluted. At a lower depth, water is available but it is highly brackish. Springs and wells have dried up due to the continuous drought spell. People in Kohistan have been forced to migrate out of the area and/or shift to places where water is accessible.

3.4 Cereal Production (1998-1999)

Cropping systems and production in Sindh are highly influenced by the intensity and distribution of rainfall in any given year. In rain-fed areas (most affected districts of Sindh) the main crops are sorghum, millet, guar and wheat. The drought has devastated rain-fed agriculture and vegetation of rangelands in the arid zones. The information on relative cereal production in the Country and in Sindh, summarized below, indicate that cereal production in Sindh in 1999-2000 has increased by 12 percent as compared to the average of the last four years:

Table 1. Cereal Production in Pakistan and in the Sindh Province-Average 1995/96-1998/99

The information on crop area and production for 1998-1999 and 1999-2000 is presented in Table 3. The production of irrigated wheat crop has increased by 8.3 % in 1999-2000 as compared with 1998-1999. The rain-fed wheat area sown and production in most affected districts has dropped by 65 and 39 percent respectively in 1999-2000 as compared to 1998-1999. Overall, wheat-sown area and production in Sindh has increased by 2 and 7 percent respectively. Area under rice in Sindh has declined by 2% in 1999-2000 over 1998-1999. Overall rice production in Sindh has increased by 10% in 1999-2000 as compared with 1998-1999. The overall area and production of other cereals (barley, sorghum, maize and millet) has dropped by 56 and 49 percent respectively in 1999-2000 over 1998-1999. Cereals, such as sorghum, maize and millet, are grown in Kharif season, which was devastated due to the absence of rainfall at the planting time (July and August 1999).
 

    Table 3. Sindh Cereal Area and Production 1999-2000 Compared with 1998-99
 

Regions	1998-99		1999-2000		Percent change
	Area (000 ha)	Production (000 ha)	Area (000 ha)	Production (000 ha)	Area (%)	Production (%)
Wheat Irrigated
Most affected districts	12	12	8	8	(-) 33	(-) 33)
Other districts	1041	2591	1097	2798	(+) 5.3	(+) 8.5
Total irrigated	1053	2591	1105	2806	(+) 4.9	(+) 8.3
Rain-fed wheat
Most affected districts	12	23	8	8	(-) 33	(-) 65
Other districts	59	62	26	38	(-) 60	(-) 39
Total irrigated	71	85	34	46	(-) 52	(-) 31
Rice	704	1930	690	2123	(-) 2	(+) 10
Other cereals	319	154	141	78	(-) 56	(-) 49

The 1998-99 Kharif season was seriously affected by drought, with the limited rainfall or virtually no rainfall. In addition to the delay of more than a month in the onset of rain, the season also stopped early in the most affected areas of Sindh. The affected farmers have either consumed or lost the seed of Kharif crops. They immediately require seeds since the sowing season is rapidly approaching. The seed requirements of millet and guar seed for the severely affected areas will be around 1,500 and 3,100 metric tons (MT) respectively. Wheat is grown only in Dadu District where seed requirements are estimated to be around 1,100 MT.

3.5. Cereal Supply and Demand for the Year 2000-2001

The estimation of the cereal balance sheet for Sindh for the year 2000-2001 was based on the following assumptions:

• An estimated population of 32.43 million in Sindh based on the 1998 census.

• Per capita cereal consumption of 140 kgs., out of which 124 kg/annum for wheat and 16 kgs/annum for rice.

• Seed, feed and wastage is 10 percent for wheat, 6 percent for rice and 50 percent for others, which are largely fed to animals.

• Stock drawn and stock build up have been assumed to be equal in quantity which cancel each other in relation to the total availability during the year and neither is given in table.

        Table 5 Sindh-Cereal Balance Sheet for the year 2000-2001 (‘000’ tonnes)

	Wheat	Rice	Other	Total
Total availability	2851	2123	78	5052
Stock drawn	-	-	-	-
Domestic production	2851	2123	78	-
Total utilization	4423	550	78	5052
Food use	4021	519	78
Feed, seed losses	402	31		-
Stock buildup	-	-	-	-
Surplus (+)/deficit (-)	(-)1572	(+)1573	-	(+) 1

Overall, Sindh faces a cereal surplus of 1,000 tonnes in 2000-2001. For wheat the deficit is 1,572,000 tonnes. For rice, the surplus is 1,573,000 tonnes.

4. Situation of Livestock

The main source of livelihood of the Thar and Achhro deserts is livestock, while the inhabitants of Kachho and Kohistan deserts depend primarily on agriculture. The estimated livestock population for the year 1999 (estimated on the basis of 1996 census) in Sindh was as 27.3 million heads. Among them, the population of cattle, buffaloes, sheep, goats and donkeys was 6.038, 5.575, 4.111. 10.814 and 0.767 million heads respectively. The rangeland areas (0.76 million hectares) of Sindh account for 4.4 percent of total land. Assuming a dry matter unit production of 150 kg per hectare, the total availability of dry edible matter output (in normal year) accounts for 0.114 million tonnes against a feed requirement of small ruminants of 4.42 million tonnes in the Sindh province. Rangeland in the desert parts of Sindh represents the main source of livelihood for animal raisers especially the transhumants who are the only dominant group that exists in the deserts of Sindh.

The drought has adversely affected the livestock population in the worst affected districts of Sindh. The share of the cattle, sheep goats and donkeys in the worst affected districts accounts for 28, 43, 41 and 39 percent of the provincial livestock population. Due to absence of rainfall since August 1999 to date, the edible biomass production has dried up and has thus not been able to maintain the livestock.

        Table 4. Current profile of livestock in Sindh (numbers in million heads)
 

Type of animals	Estimated pop. I n 1999	Share of affected districts		Share of less affected districts		Losses in affected areas		Losses in more affected districts		Balance in more affected districts
		No.	%	No.	%	No.	%	No.	%	No.	%
Cattle	6.038	1.698	28	1.277	20	0.170	10	0.064	05	1.52	1.21
Buffaloes	5.575	0.950	17	1.371	25	0.050	04	0.014	1	0.90	1.36
Sheep	4.111	1.752	43	0.458	11	0.526	30	0.069	15	0.20	0.39
Goats	10.814	4.460	41	1.753	16	0.892	20	0.090	10	3.57	1.66
Assess	0.767	0.299	39	0.317	41	0.020	06	0.001	-	0.78	0.32

Losses in terms of mortality and forced culling were observed in the order of 10% for cattle, 30 % for sheep and 20% for goats in the worst affected district of Sindh (Table 4). Domestic production of sheep and goat milk is estimated in the field to be down by 70-80 percent in the worst affected areas. The prices of livestock have declined by 80% for cattle, 75% for sheep and 70 percent for goats. The remaining small ruminants in affected areas are very weak and have limited resistance to incidence of diseases.

Animal feed in the form of roughage and concentrates, is, therefore, urgently recommended to maintain a minimum of about 0.96 million small ruminants breeding stock in the worst affected area. Concentrate feed requirements of small ruminants for 3 months would be about 17,280 tonnes. Alternative feed of urea-molasses block for small ruminants for 3 months would amount to 8,640 tonnes. The 3-month feed period is based on the assumption that there will be monsoon rainfall in July 2000. Furthermore, drenching and non-dipping medicines for both internal and external parasites could be provided in the worst affected districts of Sindh.

5. Population Affected:

The estimated number of affected people in the drought-affected areas is as follows:

Achhro is also known as the "white desert". It is devoid of any vegetative cover and has no agriculture base. Livestock is the only means of livelihood. In the Kohistan and Kachho deserts, rain-fed agriculture is the main source of livelihood. The soil of these areas is very good, requires little fertiliser application and gives excellent crops. The population in these areas is even more affected than the people of the Thar desert.

6. Coping mechanisms and food security at household level.

Major sources of livelihood in the arid zones of Sindh are livestock, rain-fed agriculture and wage labour. In normal years, main crops are sown immediately after the rainfall, followed by harvesting, stocking, marketing and feeding animals in grazing lands for the rest of year. The seasonal calendar provides opportunity for the people to secure their subsistence for the whole year and it determines their economic security and social credibility. In dry seasons, from 15 to 20 percent of the human population, comprising mostly of Bheel and Kolhee, migrate to irrigated lands along with their animals to work as farm labour. They work in irrigated areas from November to June (for sugarcane and wheat harvest and picking of cotton). Sale of livestock has increasingly become a source of cash with which they meet their requirements of medicine, education and other social obligations (marriages & funerals).

The foremost impact of the drought has been on the movement of the people and animals. The migration of people in Thar has increased by 20 percent. The increase in labour force in irrigated areas has resulted in declining wage rates and problems in procuring work. In Kohistan and Kachho areas of Dadu, the livelihood depends mostly on rain-fed agriculture; the drought has led to permanent migration of 60 percent of the population. Due to recession, the on-farm and off-farm employment opportunities are shrinking and people unable to find jobs are turning to criminal activities. For example, the Kohistan desert was a good source of sand for the glass industry in Hyderabad. Locals were employed on a daily wage basis for filling and loading of sand. The level of this activity has decreased considerably and people are barely employed for two days a week.

Lack of fodder and grazing opportunities in rangelands has resulted in 80 percent migration of cattle, 15 percent for sheep and 10 percent for goats. High mortality rate and reduction in the weight of livestock have significantly reduced the income of the people in the drought-affected areas. In Achhro Thar, where no vegetation exists, people are also using wheat as fodder to preserve their only asset and means of livelihood.

Kharif crops, the main source of livelihood of the arid zones, have been wiped out, particularly in 1999-2000, and in the process they have also lost or consumed their seed stock.

The drought has severely affected the main sources of livelihood of the desert people and eroded their purchasing power. They are surviving on the donations received from the government and philanthropists, selling their livestock at throwaway prices and relying on loans at exorbitant interest rates (more than 50 % per annum). They are also exposed to exploitation by moneylenders, landlords and middlemen. Drought is not an unfamiliar phenomenon for them and they have shown resilience and have unflinching faith in God. They have high hopes for rains this year.

Food security at the household level is under considerable stress. People are managing by changing their eating habits and reducing caloric intake, which in turn has affected the overall nutritional status of the population (also of livestock) and their health.

7. Household Food Consumption and Eating Habits

During normal years, the diet includes wheat and/or millet, vegetables, tea, pulses and milk products (lassi/butter). A large number of Hindus reside in the desert areas and therefore meat is not used there. Muslims also tend to avoid sacrificing animals in the areas where they live in proximity with the Hindus.

The drought has led to a change in the dietary pattern and the food intake of the majority of the affected population. It is now limited to wheat (roti), which is usually taken with onion and chillies. Resources permitting, they also consume broken rice (low quality), potatoes and pulses. Traditionally, the families eat together, including women and children.

Reduction in the intake of "lassi", other milk products and locally produced vegetables (which are dried by the "Tharis" for off season consumption) has contributed to the low nutritional intake of the population. The variety of the traditional diets has disappeared. Essential food items are available from the local village shops and nearby towns but are expensive and most of the population cannot afford to procure in quantities required. The price of wheat flour in towns is Rs. 8 to 9 per Kg. Wheat flour is available at Rs.10 to 12 per Kg. in the village shops in the more remote areas.

8. Health Conditions and Facilities

Except for the population living in the vicinity of major towns that are served by tehsil hospitals and rural health centres, access to health facilities in remote areas is inadequate. In Achro Thar, Kachho, and Kohistan, health facilities are either completely lacking or not functioning due to non-availability of staff.

According to the Health Officials, no cases of deaths were reported due to hunger. Although the press reported 127 deaths in Thar, they were natural deaths and were recorded officially this year.

The overall nutritional status of the human population has certainly been affected. Poor purchasing power of the people in general has led to inadequate food intake. Incidence of tuberculosis is on increase (particularly among old men) mainly due to poor diet, unsafe drinking water, improper administration of medical treatment and unhygienic practices. According to a local NGO (Thardeep), about 0.1 percent population is suffering from T.B. i.e. 10,000 cases in Tharparkar. Hypertension is on rise due to increased stress and use of brackish water in both men and women. Gastro-enteritis is caused due to inaccessibility to potable drinking water, particularly in the Kachho and Kohistan deserts. Women in general are anaemic. Night blindness was also reported in these areas. These health problems had existed even before the drought and they are associated with hard living conditions and inaccessibility to health facilities. There is no epidemic or unusual increase in the mortality rates in drought-affected areas.

9. Status of Women

The women in the Thar and Achhro deserts are culturally very conservative and observe Purdah. Thakurs do not allow their women to go out of their houses. In general, women are responsible to take care of domestic chores, in addition to collecting water. They are also involved in income generating activities, such as embroidery and handicrafts. Usually, they do not look after the livestock and/or collect fodder or fuel wood. Able-bodied men going for outside employment ensure that at least one male member stays with the family to look after women and children. Drought has increased the workload of men, as they have to collect fodder for stall-feeding of the cattle.

Income generating activities of the women have been adversely affected by drought. The sale of their products has decreased due to low purchasing power of the people in general. The middlemen are also exploiting their weak bargaining position by offering lower prices for their products. The household income is almost entirely spent on buying essential food items and they are barely left with the money to buy raw material for their handicrafts.

The women in the Kachho and Kohistan deserts are culturally more open. They are engaged in farming, collecting water and making mat ropes, in addition to looking after household affairs. They tend to receive little support from the male members of the family. They are suffering under the drought conditions as they are spending longer hours to collect water than before and have to produce more mat ropes to generate additional income for their families.

10. Relief measures.

The Federal and Provincial Governments have responded timely and effectively. The Federal Government has provided one billion Rupees while the Provincial Government has contributed Rs. 215 million, which includes a grant of Rs. 50 million from the Zakat and Usher Funds. The Government’s immediate priorities were to provide relief rations for both the human and livestock populations. The Government, with the support of the Army monitoring teams, has distributed 92 percent of the 89,854 bags of wheat (100 kg bags - about 9,000 MT) to the drought victims in Tharparkar, Umerkot and Dadu districts. In Tarparkar and UmerKot, the affected families have received subsidized wheat @ Rs.5/per Kg. and a cash compensation of Rs. 1,000. In Dadu District, the families have received 20 Kg. wheat and flour and cash compensation of Rs. 500 for each family. Free food in camps was provided to over 11,000 destitute in Tharparkar District. Additionally, Government’s recovery of past dues is postponed and remission on land revenue is granted in the affected areas. The grant from the Federal Government has not been spent as yet. Indications are that this amount will be spent on the development of infrastructure and water resources.

The current drought has brought a ray of hope for development in these traditionally ignored areas of the province. The Government relief package has helped to mitigate their immediate burden and food requirements for at least one month. Tharparkar, due to its vast geographic area and the media focus, has received much of the Government’s attention.

Particular attention is being paid on the delivery of health services. Mobile medical teams of the Health Department and the Army have set up medical camps to provide necessary medical services. They have visited 670 villages and over 3,000 TB patients and 100,000 patients have been provided medical care.

Veterinary teams have treated over 28,000 head of cattle in 2,442 villages and 1.6 million livestock have been vaccinated. The livestock department has distributed approximately 28.5 MT of cattle feed. The Government of Sindh has planned to rehabilitate and operationalize 238 tube wells.

In addition to the government relief measures, the Government of Punjab, philanthropists, political parties and NGOs have provided relief goods, primarily food items, worth approximately Rs. 150 million. NGOs involved in this operation include OXFAM, Red Crescent, SCF, Church World Services, Islamic Relief Agency and Thardeep. Other contributers to this relief operation include the Jumati Islami Party, Edhi Foundation, Imran Khan, Ansar Burni, and the Dewan Group.

In Achhro Thar, the only assistance was received from the local residents upon a call of Pir Sahib Pagra where the local farmers provided 50 kgs. wheat per family. In Kohistan, Al Abbas Welfare Organization has distributed wheat flour and other items over Rs. 2 million. The spate of private donations seems to have cooled down more recently.

11. Constraints.

The main constraints of accessibility and mobility of the population vary from place to place. In Thar desert, areas closer to the towns are served by GMC trucks on a daily basis, while the cost of travel and the transport is high. GMC trucks, on a weekly basis, serve the far-flung areas in Achhro Thar.

High transport cost has added to the cost of living. As narrated by a villager in Achhro Thar, he spent Rs.220 to transport his healthy goat to the town (Rs.20 for himself and 200 for goat) which was sold at Rs. 600. This left him with Rs. 380 with which he bought one bag of 40 Kg. of wheat for Rs. 325. He spent Rs. 20 for this return journey and paid Rs. 35 as transport cost of one bag of wheat. In real terms, he managed to buy 40 Kg. of wheat for the price of one goat. In the past, he was able to get 160 kg. of wheat in exchange for one goat. Similarly, in Kohistan, the Government had to pay Rs. 4,000 to deliver donated food (5-6 MT) from the town of Thana Bula Khan to a village which was only 70 Km. away.

The relief goods contributions from various resources are delivered at the Office of the Deputy Commissioners who are responsible to transport them to the far-flung areas. They do not have a fleet or funds for POL at their disposal for the transportation. Sometimes, the cost of transportation of the donated items turns out to be more than their value.

Delivery of relief goods in drought-affected areas is very expensive due to sandy and hilly unpaved tracks and the scattered population. There was a suggestion to locate the most affected population in camps in the remote areas to reduce the logistics cost and to improve operational efficiency. Since the affected population is fairly homogenous in remote areas, another suggestion was that the distribution of relief food should be targeted to the entire village rather than for a specific group.

In view of the logistics constraints, the contributions made by NGOs and philanthropists have mostly been distributed in easily accessible areas. It was learnt that their distribution strategy was not well organised and coordinated. At places it created more chaos than support. However, the civil administration with the help of the army has managed to reach the remote areas in Thar. One of the main reasons is the Army’s presence in the border areas and its familiarity with the area. More than 80 percent of the people the mission talked to had confirmed the receipt of subsidised wheat and cash and they appreciated the role of Army in this respect.

NGOs are quite active in the Tharparkar District and seem to have effective implementation, though often limited to accessible areas. However, their presence and capacity in Achhro, Umerkot, Kohistan and Kachho is minimal. There was lack of co-ordination between NGOs and civil administration in the distribution of relief goods.

12. Priorities

Availability of potable drinking water, proper management of water resources and communications are the three priority areas and are key to the long-term development of the desert areas. Water sources in the eastern desert are still un-exploited and the permanent installation of tube wells, hand pumps and check dams can alleviate future water problems. Similarly, construction of all-weather roads will improve accessibility of the population, will stabilize market prices and will stimulate economic activities. These areas have good potential for WFP to undertake food-for-work infrastructure development activities.

13. Summary of Conclusion and recommendations:

The drought situation has emerged due to failure of rains over the past three years in the affected areas of Sindh. This has severely affected crops, fodder, livestock and the human population. The Kharif crop of 1999 has been completely lost. The prices of livestock have declined almost by 70%. Given that livestock and agriculture are the main sources of income, the purchasing power of the affected population has been severely eroded. This has affected food security at of the household level, leading to a change in their dietary pattern with lower caloric intake. This in turn has affected overall nutritional status of the people. Although underground water is available at varying depths, it is brackish and not suitable for either cultivation or for humans and livestock. Access to clean, potable drinking water is extremely limited and is the key concern in the affected areas.

The drought is a recurrent phenomena for the people of these the areas. With current support from the government and philanthropists, their traditional resilience and coping mechanisms under these conditions, their strong faith in God and hope for rains this year; they have managed to survive so far. There are no reported casualties related to hunger.

However, if the monsoon rains fail this year too, it will seriously weaken their dwindling coping mechanisms. Their remaining assets (livestock) risk depletion and they will be under greater debt burden. This in turn will further reduce their purchasing power, adding to food insecurity at the household level. Although the cereal balance sheet for the year 2000-2001 is positive, both at the national and provincial level, this however does not guarantee access to food by the affected population due to their weakening economic base. Therefore, a case for humanitarian emergency food assistance may be considered in the event of the failure of rains this year.

14. Immediate measures.

• On an emergency basis, seeds of millet and guar should be provided in the affected areas of Tharparkar, Umerkot and Dadu Districts before the sowing season that starts from early July.
• Feed and roughage to the affected livestock population in all severely affected districts is needed for a period of a minimum of three months to last until pasture is available. In case of rain failure during the coming monsoon season, these inputs will be required for at least six months.
• Vaccination and de-worming for the livestock population is needed to mitigate further deterioration.
• WFP should extend support to MCH services through mobile/medical camps with the provision of edible oil and iron tablets from its on-going health programme in these districts.
• WFP should consider an emergency relief operation if there are no rains this year. The situation should be re-assessed in July.

• Tube-wells and hand pumps should be installed and the existing ones rehabilitated.
• Check dams and small water reservoirs should be constructed to improve storage, conserve water and thereby improving the recharge. Wherever potable water is available, possibilities for the supply of water through pipes to the affected villages should be explored.
• WFP should undertake food for work and income generating activities (roads, water development facilities, income generating activities for women, etc.)
• Accessibility to remote areas should be improved through construction of roads. Electricity should be supplied to these areas to facilitate development and improve water-pumping capabilities.

                                                                                                                                                            21 June 2000

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